October 15 2025 | Financial Services | M&A Advisors | Deals
With many nations renegotiating their trade policies with the US in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s election, economic uncertainty has weighed on M&A activity in the finance and banking sector, especially in the Americas, according to Ansarada’s Deal Room data. The outlook is more promising looking at the longer-term trend, as consolidations among mid-market firms continue.
Uncertainty prompts short-term blip
In the Americas, Ansarada's Deal Room data indicates that the results for new banking and finance M&A deals show a disappointing three-month growth rate of minus 53% from 1 December 2024 to 28 February 2025. However, when examining the number of deals in Ansarada's Deal Rooms from 1 March 2024 to 28 February 2025, the US growth rate is a more moderate minus 17%.
So the short-term decline bucks a better longer-term trend. As Ansarada’s 2025Finance and Banking M&A Outlook Report shows, M&A activity, especially among mid-market firms, is being driven by roll-ups as firms combine to achieve scale.
The more recent figures represent the uncertainty that gripped markets in the wake of the US President taking office and subsequent Liberation Day announcements on 2 April 2025. These were a series of proclamations the current US President made after coming into office about upcoming new tariffs on major trading partners, in particular China. Most of these proposed arrangements have subsequently been watered down or removed altogether and deal markets have recovered. They could be reintroduced.
The decline in the number of US banking and finance deals (minus 53%) in Ansarada’s Deal Room is worse than the global average of minus 43%. Although US numbers are better than three markets, Asia (minus 69%), Europe (minus 59%) and the UK and Ireland (minus 55%). But US numbers are not as good as the Middle East and Africa (minus 35%) and Australia and New Zealand (minus 52%).
Better times ahead
The news for US deals is much rosier looking at medium-term figures. Over a twelve-month comparative basis (1 March 2024 to 28 February 2025 compared to 1 March 2023 to 29 February 2024), the Americas demonstrated robust deal room year-on-year growth of 82% in the banking and finance sector, which reflects a strong recovery compared to the previous twelve months.
These solid US figures are particularly noteworthy given the broader context, with data from the Americas outpacing several other regions. Although the recovery across all regions has been healthy, on an overall global rise of 80%.
The top market has been Australasia, with banking and finance deal numbers up 92% across the same period and deal numbers in the Middle East and Africa up 80%, with these markets somewhat insulated from US trade decisions. So, while the short-term outlook may be difficult, the long-term trajectory for M&A activity in the banking and finance sector across the Americas is promising.
Overall, expect M&A activity in the Americas to continue to be volatile in light of an uncertain geopolitical outlook and an at-times erratic US administration. These factors may inhibit the ability of underlying positive economic fundamentals to play out across transaction markets, which have nevertheless displayed remarkable resilience.
